Mar 3, 2021

Ten Year Trend Analysis

In the spring of 2021 we undertook a project of understanding the coming changes in the electoral landscape. The goal of this project was to identify places where Democrats may not be competitive right now and places that are competitive but may no longer remain so in 10 years. In short, we find that the coming decade will likely not see radical changes in which states are competitive without a large and unexpected change in political realignment, mortality, or migration.