Earlier this year, Forward Majority set out to do something that Democrats rarely do: think strategically about long-term power-building. We conducted a robust quantitative forecasting analysis of macro trends to understand the state legislative districts that are likely to be the ‘tipping points’ that determine majorities in 2030. The playing field is very clearly defined: ~85 largely suburban, Republican-leaning districts across MI, PA, AZ, VA, TX, GA and NC will likely be the tipping point of state legislative power in 2030. Winning these tipping point districts in 2030 will not be easy: if that election year is a Republican-leaning or even neutral environment, we may not win the majority of these chambers. The key for Democrats is to exploit opportunities at the district level that have not been systematically pursued, which can build advantage and shape the electorate over time, for example voter registration to capture the opportunity of 2.2 million unregistered likely Democratic voters in these districts. Overall, the battlelines are very clearly defined, and there is a opportunity if we pursue the multi-cycle investments that can make the biggest difference.
Sep 13, 2022