Since 2021, Forward Majority has published projections of electoral trends at the statewide and state legislative district level. These trends are informed primarily by demographics:
- Maturation: Using Census ACS data we estimate the racial and ethnic composition of young people who will age into the electorate (in this case over the next five years).
- Mortality: CDC data gives us mortality rates by race/ethnicity, age, and gender.
- Migration: Census ACS data allows us to estimate the composition and volume of both in-migration and out-migration, including where movers are coming from.
These factors, combined with estimated partisanship from the voter file and AP VoteCast, allow us to create baseline 5-year trends. Partisan behavior within demographic groups is frozen for this baseline projection. The next step is to game out real-world electoral scenarios. Some examples:
- Age 18-34 +5pp: A favorable scenario for Dems. Youth support surges by 5 points.
- Hispanic & Asian -5pp; Black -2pp: An unfavorable scenario. Racial depolarization accelerates.
- College Educated +5pp; High School Only -5pp: A mixed scenario. Education polarization accelerates.
We run these voter alignment scenarios (82 of them) in seven different electoral environments ranging from Republican wave years (R+6) to Democratic waves (D+6). Combined, these 574 electoral scenarios provide us with a range of outcomes and a way to quantify the likelihood that a district will be competitive in 2030.
Read the full report here: Forward Majority Tipping Point Model Report June 2026